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Forecasting the load of electrical power systems in mid- and long-term horizons: A review

机译:预测中长期的电力系统负荷:回顾

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摘要

Load forecasting has always been an important part in the planning and operation of electric utilities, i.e., both transmission and distribution companies. With technological advancement, change in economic condition and many other factors (to be discussed in this work), load forecasting is becoming more important. The forecast affects as well as gets affected because of the load impacting factors and actions taken in different time horizons. However, due to its stochastic and uncertainty characteristics, it has been one challenging problem for electrical utilities to accurately forecast future load demand. This paper aims at reviewing the different load forecasting techniques developed for the mid- and long-term horizons of electrical power systems. Since there has never been an explicit literature study of the various forecasting techniques for mid- and long-term horizons, this paper reviews techniques for each of the forecasting horizons, citing various methodologies developed so far supported by published literature. The study is concluded with discussion on future research directions.
机译:负荷预测一直是电力公司(即输电和配电公司)的规划和运营中的重要组成部分。随着技术的进步,经济状况的变化以及许多其他因素(将在本文中讨论),负荷预测变得越来越重要。由于负载影响因素和在不同时间范围内采取的行动,因此预测会受到影响,也会受到影响。然而,由于其随机性和不确定性特征,对于电力公司来说准确预测未来的负载需求一直是一个具有挑战性的问题。本文旨在回顾针对电力系统的中长期发展而开发的不同负荷预测技术。由于从未对中长期预测的各种预测技术进行过明确的文献研究,因此本文引用了迄今已获出版文献支持的各种方法,对每种预测视野的技术进行了综述。最后,讨论未来的研究方向。

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